Daily Killings in the nation Decline 37% In Claudia Sheinbaum, Per Official Figures

The average number of everyday homicides each month in the country has fallen by more than a third since President Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, as stated by recent official statistics. But, public safety specialists have cautioned that homicide numbers might not indicate improved countrywide safety.

Significant Drop in Per-Day Averages

Officials reported an average of almost 55 killings a day in last November as opposed to almost 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum took the leadership in the previous September. This data was provided by the chief of the nation's federal safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The result in murders that have been recorded in these past months is very important,” the President remarked, noting that in November the smallest number of homicides were recorded for any single November in the last decade.

Historical Context and Government Plan

Intense cartel rivalries, coupled with the government’s highly military campaigns to combat the drug gangs, have led to Mexico’s murder rate soar in the past few years. The rate reached a maximum of 36,773 killings in 2020, as reported by the nation's national statistics office.

That meant Mexico a homicide rate more than four times greater than the US. However, killings have been on the decline, falling to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Sheinbaum has attributed her public safety strategy for an ostensibly more pronounced drop in homicides in the current year.

At a news briefing in the summer, the head of state said: “There is a strategy, we have monitoring of the plan, and there is detailed tracking town by town in certain cases. The approach works. And we have to keep working at it every day.”

The key components of the President's security plan include:

• Strengthening Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Improving information gathering and investigation efforts.
• Greater collaboration between government agencies.

Analyst Skepticism and Data Limitations

But, public safety researchers cautioned that focusing solely on homicide statistics to draw a conclusion of improved security was flawed. This is especially true considering the increase in different crimes such as forced disappearances.

“It would be excellent information if this was a decrease, but I think we can’t just look at the homicide numbers and conclude: ‘Alright, great,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexican criminal organizations. “I would be cautiously hopeful.”

As reported by the policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, murders in total declined by more than 20% in the first 10 months of this year versus the same period last year. Yet, disappearances have gone up by 15% and in some regions have surged by as much as 200%.

“Statistics on murders is not valid for assessing the reality of violence,” said Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who do not have the resources or the inclination to accurately recognize and classify remains. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the capability to hide violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas pointed out that relying on monthly averages of everyday killings was also concerning because it may hide periods when there were especially high levels of murders.

“Relying on the per-day average renders surges of violent crime invisible,” he concluded.

Arrests and Seizures as Metrics of Success

Where the administration can cite the effectiveness of its security plan is on detentions and confiscations. Nearly 40,000 people were detained between last October and November 2025 for major offenses, per official data. Over 20,000 firearms were seized and 311 tons of narcotics confiscated.

“Trump can't claim President Sheinbaum of inaction, because the reality is she is doing a lot with these thousands of arrests, many thousands of confiscations, and all the tactical degrading of criminal groups. It’s extremely in political terms beneficial,” stated Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Public Frustration

But notwithstanding these efforts, Mexico is still beset by severe violence, with several regions in the grip of cartel-fueled violence. Last month there was a notable murder of a popular mayor in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors murdered in the last year.

A short time after, many thousands of young people protested in the capital and throughout the nation to voice their anger at corruption and cartel violence.

“The administration frames [data] in a way to construct a story of security. Politically it’s highly successful, from a social perspective it’s very problematic,” Vargas concluded.